Christian McCaffrey
SF vs. SEAFloor13.8
Median17.9
Ceiling26.0
Recent PPG: 16.5
Recent volume: 20.0
Snap share: 79%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 7, 2026, 3:25 PM EDT
Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry: who should I start?
Start Derrick Henry over Christian McCaffrey in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 19.8 to 17.9.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
SF vs. SEAOpen player file →
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. ATLFloor13.0
Median19.8
Ceiling22.2
Recent PPG: 21.8
Recent volume: 26.0
Snap share: 65%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 5 projection by format.
Standard
Start Derrick Henry
3.6-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Christian McCaffrey
SF vs. SEA- Floor
- 11.6
- Projection
- 15.5
- Ceiling
- 23.6
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 12.9
- Projection
- 19.1
- Ceiling
- 21.6
Half PPR
Start Derrick Henry
1.9-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Christian McCaffrey
SF vs. SEA- Floor
- 13.8
- Projection
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 26.0
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 19.8
- Ceiling
- 22.2
PPR
Start Derrick Henry — close call
0.2-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Christian McCaffrey
SF vs. SEA- Floor
- 15.5
- Projection
- 20.4
- Ceiling
- 28.5
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 13.4
- Projection
- 20.6
- Ceiling
- 22.9
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two relevant running-back options in a similar weekly range, compared through touches, receiving work, matchup and current availability.
Christian McCaffrey: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is tougher. Derrick Henry: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup is neutral.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 4 final result
Derrick Henry scored more. The pregame lean was right.
Christian McCaffrey: 14.5 Half PPR · Derrick Henry: 14.9 Half PPR.