Derrick Henry
BAL vs. CINFloor12.5
Median16.3
Ceiling22.2
Recent PPG: 15.3
Recent volume: 22.0
Snap share: 56%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 7 lineup decision · updated Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT
Derrick Henry or Ja'Marr Chase: who should I start?
Derrick Henry has the narrow Week 7 lean over Ja'Marr Chase. The Half PPR projection is 16.3 to 16.1.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
BAL vs. CINOpen player file →
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN vs. BALFloor12.4
Median16.1
Ceiling20.0
Recent PPG: 16.1
Recent volume: 6.5
Snap share: 55%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 7 projection by format.
Standard
Start Derrick Henry
3.2-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. CIN- Floor
- 12.1
- Projection
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 21.6
Other option
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN vs. BAL- Floor
- 8.0
- Projection
- 12.6
- Ceiling
- 15.5
Half PPR
Start Derrick Henry — close call
0.2-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. CIN- Floor
- 12.5
- Projection
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 22.2
Other option
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN vs. BAL- Floor
- 12.4
- Projection
- 16.1
- Ceiling
- 20.0
PPR
Start Ja'Marr Chase
2.6-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. CIN- Floor
- 12.7
- Projection
- 16.9
- Ceiling
- 22.9
Recommended start
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN vs. BAL- Floor
- 15.2
- Projection
- 19.5
- Ceiling
- 24.6
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two viable FLEX options with similar weekly projections, compared through recent opportunity, scoring format, matchup and current availability.
Derrick Henry: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup helps. Ja'Marr Chase: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup helps.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 7 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
More Week 7 decisions
Keep working through the close calls.
FLEX · 1.0-point leanDerrick Henry over Amon-Ra St. Brown16.3–15.3 Half PPR →FLEX · 3.9-point leanJa'Marr Chase over Ashton Jeanty16.1–12.2 Half PPR →FLEX · 4.4-point leanJa'Marr Chase over Bhayshul Tuten16.1–11.7 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.2-point leanDerrick Henry over Brock Bowers16.3–15.1 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.0-point leanJa'Marr Chase over Brock Bowers16.1–15.1 Half PPR →FLEX · 2.6-point leanJa'Marr Chase over Bucky Irving16.1–13.5 Half PPR →