Lamar Jackson
BAL vs. ATLFloor0.0
Median0.0
Ceiling0.0
Recent PPG: 19.8
Recent volume: 24.0
Snap share: 76%
Availability: Out
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 10, 2026, 1:57 PM EDT
Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes: who should I start?
Start Patrick Mahomes over Lamar Jackson in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 20.4 to 0.0.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
BAL vs. ATLOpen player file →
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. TBDFloor13.0
Median20.4
Ceiling26.2
Recent PPG: 20.9
Recent volume: 28.5
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 5 projection by format.
Standard
Start Patrick Mahomes
20.4-point gapLow confidence
Other option
Lamar Jackson
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 0.0
- Projection
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 0.0
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 20.4
- Ceiling
- 26.2
Half PPR
Start Patrick Mahomes
20.4-point gapLow confidence
Other option
Lamar Jackson
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 0.0
- Projection
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 0.0
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 20.4
- Ceiling
- 26.2
PPR
Start Patrick Mahomes
20.4-point gapLow confidence
Other option
Lamar Jackson
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 0.0
- Projection
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 0.0
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 20.4
- Ceiling
- 26.2
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
A custom QB decision using recorded scoring, recent opportunity, opponent, and current-week availability.
Lamar Jackson: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup is neutral. Patrick Mahomes: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup is neutral.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 4 final result
Lamar Jackson scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.
Lamar Jackson: 18.9 Half PPR · Patrick Mahomes: 17.0 Half PPR.
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