Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. NYJFloor13.2
Median17.8
Ceiling27.1
Recent PPG: 14.7
Recent volume: 39.0
Snap share: 100%
Availability: Full Participation in Practice
Week 9 lineup decision · updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:07 PM EST
Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts: who should I start?
Start Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts in Week 9. The Half PPR projection is 17.8 to 0.0.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
KC vs. NYJOpen player file →
Jalen Hurts
PHI vs. NYGFloor0.0
Median0.0
Ceiling0.0
Recent PPG: 13.8
Recent volume: 37.0
Snap share: 100%
Availability: Reserve list
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 9 projection by format.
Standard
Start Patrick Mahomes
17.8-point gapLow confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. NYJ- Floor
- 13.2
- Projection
- 17.8
- Ceiling
- 27.1
Other option
Jalen Hurts
PHI vs. NYG- Floor
- 0.0
- Projection
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 0.0
Half PPR
Start Patrick Mahomes
17.8-point gapLow confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. NYJ- Floor
- 13.2
- Projection
- 17.8
- Ceiling
- 27.1
Other option
Jalen Hurts
PHI vs. NYG- Floor
- 0.0
- Projection
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 0.0
PPR
Start Patrick Mahomes
17.8-point gapLow confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. NYJ- Floor
- 13.2
- Projection
- 17.8
- Ceiling
- 27.1
Other option
Jalen Hurts
PHI vs. NYG- Floor
- 0.0
- Projection
- 0.0
- Ceiling
- 0.0
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
A premium quarterback decision that tests passing volume against Hurts' rushing-driven weekly ceiling.
Patrick Mahomes: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup helps. Jalen Hurts: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup helps.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 9 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.