Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. MIAFloor13.7
Median22.4
Ceiling27.6
Recent PPG: 25.4
Recent volume: 41.5
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 3 lineup decision · updated Sep 22, 2026, 8:07 PM EDT
Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts: who should I start?
Start Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts in Week 3. The Half PPR projection is 22.4 to 19.7.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
KC vs. MIAOpen player file →
Jalen Hurts
PHI vs. CHIFloor16.2
Median19.7
Ceiling24.9
Recent PPG: 20.5
Recent volume: 37.0
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 3 projection by format.
Standard
Start Patrick Mahomes
2.7-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. MIA- Floor
- 13.7
- Projection
- 22.4
- Ceiling
- 27.6
Other option
Jalen Hurts
PHI vs. CHI- Floor
- 16.2
- Projection
- 19.7
- Ceiling
- 24.9
Half PPR
Start Patrick Mahomes
2.7-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. MIA- Floor
- 13.7
- Projection
- 22.4
- Ceiling
- 27.6
Other option
Jalen Hurts
PHI vs. CHI- Floor
- 16.2
- Projection
- 19.7
- Ceiling
- 24.9
PPR
Start Patrick Mahomes
2.7-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. MIA- Floor
- 13.7
- Projection
- 22.4
- Ceiling
- 27.6
Other option
Jalen Hurts
PHI vs. CHI- Floor
- 16.2
- Projection
- 19.7
- Ceiling
- 24.9
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
A premium quarterback decision that tests passing volume against Hurts' rushing-driven weekly ceiling.
Patrick Mahomes: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup helps. Jalen Hurts: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup helps.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 3 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.