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FANTASY TRADETARGET
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 10, 2026, 1:57 PM EDT

Derrick Henry or Puka Nacua: who should I start?

Start Derrick Henry over Puka Nacua in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 19.8 to 17.8.

The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.

Start lean
Photograph of Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry

BAL vs. ATL
Floor13.0
Median19.8
Ceiling22.2

Recent PPG: 21.8

Recent volume: 26.0

Snap share: 65%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Photograph of Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua

LAR vs. BUF
Floor12.4
Median17.8
Ceiling22.8

Recent PPG: 16.6

Recent volume: 10.5

Snap share: 80%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Scoring changes the call

Week 5 projection by format.

4 points per passing TD
Standard

Start Derrick Henry

5.2-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Derrick Henry

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
12.9
Projection
19.1
Ceiling
21.6
Other option

Puka Nacua

LAR vs. BUF
Floor
9.0
Projection
13.9
Ceiling
18.4
Half PPR

Start Derrick Henry

2.0-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Derrick Henry

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
13.0
Projection
19.8
Ceiling
22.2
Other option

Puka Nacua

LAR vs. BUF
Floor
12.4
Projection
17.8
Ceiling
22.8
PPR

Start Puka Nacua

1.0-point gapHigh confidence
Other option

Derrick Henry

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
13.4
Projection
20.6
Ceiling
22.9
Recommended start

Puka Nacua

LAR vs. BUF
Floor
15.1
Projection
21.6
Ceiling
27.3

Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.

Why the model leans this way

Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.

Two viable FLEX options with similar weekly projections, compared through recent opportunity, scoring format, matchup and current availability.

Derrick Henry: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup is neutral. Puka Nacua: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is tougher.

Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.

Week 4 final result

Puka Nacua scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.

Derrick Henry: 14.9 Half PPR · Puka Nacua: 23.2 Half PPR.

Recent usageCheck snaps and opportunities →AvailabilityOpen the injury report →Rest of seasonCompare redraft value →