Derrick Henry
BAL vs. CINFloor12.5
Median16.3
Ceiling22.2
Recent PPG: 15.3
Recent volume: 22.0
Snap share: 56%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 7 lineup decision · updated Oct 20, 2026, 7:55 PM EDT
Derrick Henry or Nico Collins: who should I start?
Start Derrick Henry over Nico Collins in Week 7. The Half PPR projection is 16.3 to 14.5.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
BAL vs. CINOpen player file →
Nico Collins
HOU vs. NYGFloor8.1
Median14.5
Ceiling19.1
Recent PPG: 15.6
Recent volume: 6.0
Snap share: 72%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 7 projection by format.
Standard
Start Derrick Henry
3.9-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. CIN- Floor
- 12.1
- Projection
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 21.6
Other option
Nico Collins
HOU vs. NYG- Floor
- 5.9
- Projection
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 15.4
Half PPR
Start Derrick Henry
1.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. CIN- Floor
- 12.5
- Projection
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 22.2
Other option
Nico Collins
HOU vs. NYG- Floor
- 8.1
- Projection
- 14.5
- Ceiling
- 19.1
PPR
Start Nico Collins — close call
0.1-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. CIN- Floor
- 12.7
- Projection
- 16.9
- Ceiling
- 22.9
Recommended start
Nico Collins
HOU vs. NYG- Floor
- 10.4
- Projection
- 17.0
- Ceiling
- 21.7
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two viable FLEX options with similar weekly projections, compared through recent opportunity, scoring format, matchup and current availability.
Derrick Henry: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup helps. Nico Collins: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup helps.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 7 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 6 final result
Nico Collins scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.
Derrick Henry: 4.5 Half PPR · Nico Collins: 9.4 Half PPR.
More Week 7 decisions
Keep working through the close calls.
FLEX · 1.0-point leanDerrick Henry over Amon-Ra St. Brown16.3–15.3 Half PPR →FLEX · 2.3-point leanNico Collins over Ashton Jeanty14.5–12.2 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.2-point leanDerrick Henry over Brock Bowers16.3–15.1 Half PPR →FLEX · Close callBrock Bowers over Nico Collins15.1–14.5 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.9-point leanDerrick Henry over CeeDee Lamb16.3–14.4 Half PPR →FLEX · 2.8-point leanNico Collins over Chase Brown14.5–11.7 Half PPR →