Derrick Henry
BAL vs. ATLFloor13.0
Median19.8
Ceiling22.2
Recent PPG: 21.8
Recent volume: 26.0
Snap share: 65%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 7, 2026, 3:25 PM EDT
Derrick Henry or Kenneth Walker: who should I start?
Kenneth Walker has the narrow Week 5 lean over Derrick Henry. The Half PPR projection is 20.3 to 19.8.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
BAL vs. ATLOpen player file →
Kenneth Walker
KC vs. TBDFloor6.8
Median20.3
Ceiling20.8
Recent PPG: 26.0
Recent volume: 21.5
Snap share: 74%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 5 projection by format.
Standard
Start Derrick Henry — close call
0.1-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 12.9
- Projection
- 19.1
- Ceiling
- 21.6
Other option
Kenneth Walker
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 6.1
- Projection
- 19.0
- Ceiling
- 19.0
Half PPR
Start Kenneth Walker — close call
0.5-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 19.8
- Ceiling
- 22.2
Recommended start
Kenneth Walker
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 6.8
- Projection
- 20.3
- Ceiling
- 20.8
PPR
Start Kenneth Walker
1.0-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Derrick Henry
BAL vs. ATL- Floor
- 13.4
- Projection
- 20.6
- Ceiling
- 22.9
Recommended start
Kenneth Walker
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 7.6
- Projection
- 21.6
- Ceiling
- 22.3
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two relevant running-back options in a similar weekly range, compared through touches, receiving work, matchup and current availability.
Derrick Henry: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup is neutral. Kenneth Walker: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 4 final result
Kenneth Walker scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.
Derrick Henry: 14.9 Half PPR · Kenneth Walker: 30.4 Half PPR.