Dak Prescott
DAL vs. TBFloor16.3
Median21.2
Ceiling24.5
Recent PPG: 20.3
Recent volume: 45.5
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 10, 2026, 1:57 PM EDT
Dak Prescott or Joe Burrow: who should I start?
Dak Prescott has the narrow Week 5 lean over Joe Burrow. The Half PPR projection is 21.2 to 20.8.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
DAL vs. TBOpen player file →
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. MIAFloor14.6
Median20.8
Ceiling24.0
Recent PPG: 19.2
Recent volume: 48.0
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 5 projection by format.
Standard
Start Dak Prescott — close call
0.4-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Dak Prescott
DAL vs. TB- Floor
- 16.3
- Projection
- 21.2
- Ceiling
- 24.5
Other option
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. MIA- Floor
- 14.6
- Projection
- 20.8
- Ceiling
- 24.0
Half PPR
Start Dak Prescott — close call
0.4-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Dak Prescott
DAL vs. TB- Floor
- 16.3
- Projection
- 21.2
- Ceiling
- 24.5
Other option
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. MIA- Floor
- 14.6
- Projection
- 20.8
- Ceiling
- 24.0
PPR
Start Dak Prescott — close call
0.4-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Dak Prescott
DAL vs. TB- Floor
- 16.3
- Projection
- 21.2
- Ceiling
- 24.5
Other option
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. MIA- Floor
- 14.6
- Projection
- 20.8
- Ceiling
- 24.0
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
A custom QB decision using recorded scoring, recent opportunity, opponent, and current-week availability.
Dak Prescott: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup helps. Joe Burrow: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup helps.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 4 final result
Joe Burrow scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.
Dak Prescott: 18.1 Half PPR · Joe Burrow: 23.7 Half PPR.
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