Joe Burrow
CIN vs. ATLFloor13.9
Median25.1
Ceiling25.1
Recent PPG: 29.2
Recent volume: 41.5
Snap share: 97%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 9 lineup decision · updated Nov 7, 2026, 1:07 PM EST
Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams: who should I start?
Start Joe Burrow over Caleb Williams in Week 9. The Half PPR projection is 25.1 to 17.0.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
CIN vs. ATLOpen player file →
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. TBFloor13.9
Median17.0
Ceiling23.1
Recent PPG: 15.1
Recent volume: 37.0
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 9 projection by format.
Standard
Start Joe Burrow
8.1-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. ATL- Floor
- 13.9
- Projection
- 25.1
- Ceiling
- 25.1
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. TB- Floor
- 13.9
- Projection
- 17.0
- Ceiling
- 23.1
Half PPR
Start Joe Burrow
8.1-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. ATL- Floor
- 13.9
- Projection
- 25.1
- Ceiling
- 25.1
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. TB- Floor
- 13.9
- Projection
- 17.0
- Ceiling
- 23.1
PPR
Start Joe Burrow
8.1-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. ATL- Floor
- 13.9
- Projection
- 25.1
- Ceiling
- 25.1
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. TB- Floor
- 13.9
- Projection
- 17.0
- Ceiling
- 23.1
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two widely rostered quarterbacks in a similar weekly range, compared through recent production, rushing work, matchup and current availability.
Joe Burrow: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral. Caleb Williams: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup helps.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 9 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 8 final result
Joe Burrow scored more. The pregame lean was right.
Joe Burrow: 39.5 Half PPR · Caleb Williams: 14.0 Half PPR.
More Week 9 decisions