Joe Burrow
CIN vs. PITFloor14.3
Median19.5
Ceiling22.9
Recent PPG: 15.2
Recent volume: 36.0
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 3 lineup decision · updated Sep 22, 2026, 8:07 PM EDT
Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams: who should I start?
Joe Burrow has the narrow Week 3 lean over Caleb Williams. The Half PPR projection is 19.5 to 18.9.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
CIN vs. PITOpen player file →
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. PHIFloor11.0
Median18.9
Ceiling21.3
Recent PPG: 22.5
Recent volume: 35.0
Snap share: 93%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 3 projection by format.
Standard
Start Joe Burrow — close call
0.7-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. PIT- Floor
- 14.3
- Projection
- 19.5
- Ceiling
- 22.9
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. PHI- Floor
- 11.0
- Projection
- 18.8
- Ceiling
- 21.3
Half PPR
Start Joe Burrow — close call
0.6-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. PIT- Floor
- 14.3
- Projection
- 19.5
- Ceiling
- 22.9
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. PHI- Floor
- 11.0
- Projection
- 18.9
- Ceiling
- 21.3
PPR
Start Joe Burrow — close call
0.6-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. PIT- Floor
- 14.3
- Projection
- 19.5
- Ceiling
- 22.9
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. PHI- Floor
- 11.0
- Projection
- 18.9
- Ceiling
- 21.3
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two top-six redraft quarterbacks with different Week 3 matchups and recent rushing profiles.
Joe Burrow: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup helps. Caleb Williams: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 3 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.