Joe Burrow
CIN vs. MIAFloor14.6
Median20.8
Ceiling24.0
Recent PPG: 19.2
Recent volume: 48.0
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 6, 2026, 3:00 PM EDT
Joe Burrow or Caleb Williams: who should I start?
Start Joe Burrow over Caleb Williams in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 20.8 to 19.0.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
CIN vs. MIAOpen player file →
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. GBFloor11.1
Median19.0
Ceiling21.4
Recent PPG: 22.5
Recent volume: 35.0
Snap share: 93%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 5 projection by format.
Standard
Start Joe Burrow
1.9-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. MIA- Floor
- 14.6
- Projection
- 20.8
- Ceiling
- 24.0
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. GB- Floor
- 11.1
- Projection
- 18.9
- Ceiling
- 21.4
Half PPR
Start Joe Burrow
1.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. MIA- Floor
- 14.6
- Projection
- 20.8
- Ceiling
- 24.0
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. GB- Floor
- 11.1
- Projection
- 19.0
- Ceiling
- 21.4
PPR
Start Joe Burrow
1.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Joe Burrow
CIN vs. MIA- Floor
- 14.6
- Projection
- 20.8
- Ceiling
- 24.0
Other option
Caleb Williams
CHI vs. GB- Floor
- 11.1
- Projection
- 19.0
- Ceiling
- 21.4
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two widely rostered quarterbacks in a similar weekly range, compared through recent production, rushing work, matchup and current availability.
Joe Burrow: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup helps. Caleb Williams: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.