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Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 7, 2026, 3:25 PM EDT

Chase Brown or Garrett Wilson: who should I start?

Chase Brown has the narrow Week 5 lean over Garrett Wilson. The Half PPR projection is 13.3 to 12.4.

The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.

Start lean
Photograph of Chase Brown

Chase Brown

CIN vs. MIA
Floor12.4
Median13.3
Ceiling17.4

Recent PPG: 11.9

Recent volume: 17.5

Snap share: 75%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Photograph of Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson

NYJ vs. CLE
Floor7.2
Median12.4
Ceiling16.6

Recent PPG: 12.7

Recent volume: 8.5

Snap share: 97%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Scoring changes the call

Week 5 projection by format.

4 points per passing TD
Standard

Start Chase Brown

1.4-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Chase Brown

CIN vs. MIA
Floor
9.0
Projection
10.9
Ceiling
15.5
Other option

Garrett Wilson

NYJ vs. CLE
Floor
5.2
Projection
9.5
Ceiling
13.6
Half PPR

Start Chase Brown — close call

0.9-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Chase Brown

CIN vs. MIA
Floor
12.4
Projection
13.3
Ceiling
17.4
Other option

Garrett Wilson

NYJ vs. CLE
Floor
7.2
Projection
12.4
Ceiling
16.6
PPR

Start Chase Brown — close call

0.6-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Chase Brown

CIN vs. MIA
Floor
14.6
Projection
15.8
Ceiling
19.6
Other option

Garrett Wilson

NYJ vs. CLE
Floor
9.2
Projection
15.2
Ceiling
19.6

Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.

Why the model leans this way

Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.

Two viable FLEX options with similar weekly projections, compared through recent opportunity, scoring format, matchup and current availability.

Chase Brown: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup helps. Garrett Wilson: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup is neutral.

Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.

Week 4 final result

Chase Brown scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.

Chase Brown: 13.6 Half PPR · Garrett Wilson: 4.2 Half PPR.

Recent usageCheck snaps and opportunities →AvailabilityOpen the injury report →Rest of seasonCompare redraft value →