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Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 7, 2026, 3:25 PM EDT

Bijan Robinson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba: who should I start?

Bijan Robinson has the narrow Week 5 lean over Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Half PPR projection is 22.4 to 22.3.

The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.

Start lean
Bijan Robinson on the field in 2025

Bijan Robinson

ATL vs. BAL
Floor9.7
Median22.4
Ceiling27.3

Recent PPG: 24.6

Recent volume: 26.0

Snap share: 66%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Photograph of Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA vs. SF
Floor14.1
Median22.3
Ceiling25.1

Recent PPG: 25.2

Recent volume: 10.0

Snap share: 88%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Scoring changes the call

Week 5 projection by format.

4 points per passing TD
Standard

Start Bijan Robinson

1.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Bijan Robinson

ATL vs. BAL
Floor
8.5
Projection
20.3
Ceiling
25.3
Other option

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA vs. SF
Floor
10.6
Projection
18.5
Ceiling
21.4
Half PPR

Start Bijan Robinson — close call

0.1-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Bijan Robinson

ATL vs. BAL
Floor
9.7
Projection
22.4
Ceiling
27.3
Other option

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA vs. SF
Floor
14.1
Projection
22.3
Ceiling
25.1
PPR

Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba

1.6-point gapHigh confidence
Other option

Bijan Robinson

ATL vs. BAL
Floor
11.0
Projection
24.5
Ceiling
30.3
Recommended start

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA vs. SF
Floor
17.8
Projection
26.1
Ceiling
28.7

Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.

Why the model leans this way

Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.

Two viable FLEX options with similar weekly projections, compared through recent opportunity, scoring format, matchup and current availability.

Bijan Robinson: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral.

Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.

Week 4 final result

Bijan Robinson scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.

Bijan Robinson: 27.2 Half PPR · Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 10.1 Half PPR.

Recent usageCheck snaps and opportunities →AvailabilityOpen the injury report →Rest of seasonCompare redraft value →