Nico Collins
HOU vs. TENFloor9.3
Median15.1
Ceiling18.8
Recent PPG: 22.5
Recent volume: 9.0
Snap share: 71%
Availability: Limited practice
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 11, 2026, 7:29 AM EDT
Nico Collins or Trey McBride: who should I start?
Nico Collins has the narrow Week 5 lean over Trey McBride. The Half PPR projection is 15.1 to 14.2.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
HOU vs. TENOpen player file →
Trey McBride
ARI vs. DETFloor11.7
Median14.2
Ceiling21.0
Recent PPG: 13.2
Recent volume: 11.5
Snap share: 94%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 5 projection by format.
Standard
Start Nico Collins
2.2-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Nico Collins
HOU vs. TEN- Floor
- 7.0
- Projection
- 12.5
- Ceiling
- 15.2
Other option
Trey McBride
ARI vs. DET- Floor
- 7.4
- Projection
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 16.4
Half PPR
Start Nico Collins — close call
0.9-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Nico Collins
HOU vs. TEN- Floor
- 9.3
- Projection
- 15.1
- Ceiling
- 18.8
Other option
Trey McBride
ARI vs. DET- Floor
- 11.7
- Projection
- 14.2
- Ceiling
- 21.0
PPR
Start Trey McBride — close call
0.5-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Nico Collins
HOU vs. TEN- Floor
- 11.2
- Projection
- 17.7
- Ceiling
- 22.1
Recommended start
Trey McBride
ARI vs. DET- Floor
- 16.0
- Projection
- 18.2
- Ceiling
- 25.6
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Two viable FLEX options with similar weekly projections, compared through recent opportunity, scoring format, matchup and current availability.
Nico Collins: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup helps. Trey McBride: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 4 final result
Nico Collins scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.
Nico Collins: 27.3 Half PPR · Trey McBride: 6.6 Half PPR.
More Week 5 decisions
Keep working through the close calls.
FLEX · 3.0-point leanAmon-Ra St. Brown over Trey McBride17.2–14.2 Half PPR →FLEX · 2.7-point leanNico Collins over Ashton Jeanty15.1–12.4 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.8-point leanTrey McBride over Ashton Jeanty14.2–12.4 Half PPR →FLEX · Close callNico Collins over Brock Bowers15.1–15.0 Half PPR →FLEX · 5.9-point leanCeeDee Lamb over Trey McBride20.1–14.2 Half PPR →FLEX · 1.8-point leanNico Collins over Chase Brown15.1–13.3 Half PPR →