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Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 10, 2026, 1:57 PM EDT

Jared Goff or Lamar Jackson: who should I start?

Start Jared Goff over Lamar Jackson in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 20.4 to 0.0.

The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.

Start lean
Photograph of Jared Goff

Jared Goff

DET vs. ARI
Floor16.2
Median20.4
Ceiling22.0

Recent PPG: 21.5

Recent volume: 44.0

Snap share: 100%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Photograph of Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson

BAL vs. ATL
Floor0.0
Median0.0
Ceiling0.0

Recent PPG: 19.8

Recent volume: 24.0

Snap share: 76%

Availability: Out

Open player file →
Scoring changes the call

Week 5 projection by format.

4 points per passing TD
Standard

Start Jared Goff

20.4-point gapLow confidence
Recommended start

Jared Goff

DET vs. ARI
Floor
16.2
Projection
20.4
Ceiling
22.0
Other option

Lamar Jackson

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
0.0
Projection
0.0
Ceiling
0.0
Half PPR

Start Jared Goff

20.4-point gapLow confidence
Recommended start

Jared Goff

DET vs. ARI
Floor
16.2
Projection
20.4
Ceiling
22.0
Other option

Lamar Jackson

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
0.0
Projection
0.0
Ceiling
0.0
PPR

Start Jared Goff

20.3-point gapLow confidence
Recommended start

Jared Goff

DET vs. ARI
Floor
16.2
Projection
20.3
Ceiling
21.9
Other option

Lamar Jackson

BAL vs. ATL
Floor
0.0
Projection
0.0
Ceiling
0.0

Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.

Why the model leans this way

Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.

A custom QB decision using recorded scoring, recent opportunity, opponent, and current-week availability.

Jared Goff: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral. Lamar Jackson: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup is neutral.

Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.

Week 4 final result

Jared Goff scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.

Jared Goff: 20.5 Half PPR · Lamar Jackson: 18.9 Half PPR.

More Week 5 decisions

Keep working through the close calls.

QB · 6.9-point leanJared Goff over Justin Herbert20.4–13.5 Half PPR →
Recent usageCheck snaps and opportunities →AvailabilityOpen the injury report →Rest of seasonCompare redraft value →