DeVonta Smith
PHI vs. CHIFloor6.4
Median12.8
Ceiling14.7
Recent PPG: 14.8
Recent volume: 9.5
Snap share: 92%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 3 lineup decision · updated Sep 22, 2026, 8:07 PM EDT
DeVonta Smith or Zay Flowers: who should I start?
Zay Flowers has the narrow Week 3 lean over DeVonta Smith. The Half PPR projection is 13.5 to 12.8.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
PHI vs. CHIOpen player file →
Zay Flowers
BAL vs. DALFloor9.6
Median13.5
Ceiling15.3
Recent PPG: 23.5
Recent volume: 6.0
Snap share: 64%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 3 projection by format.
Standard
Start Zay Flowers — close call
0.9-point gapMedium confidence
Other option
DeVonta Smith
PHI vs. CHI- Floor
- 4.9
- Projection
- 10.1
- Ceiling
- 11.5
Recommended start
Zay Flowers
BAL vs. DAL- Floor
- 7.0
- Projection
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 13.0
Half PPR
Start Zay Flowers — close call
0.7-point gapMedium confidence
Other option
DeVonta Smith
PHI vs. CHI- Floor
- 6.4
- Projection
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 14.7
Recommended start
Zay Flowers
BAL vs. DAL- Floor
- 9.6
- Projection
- 13.5
- Ceiling
- 15.3
PPR
Start Zay Flowers — close call
0.4-point gapMedium confidence
Other option
DeVonta Smith
PHI vs. CHI- Floor
- 8.1
- Projection
- 15.5
- Ceiling
- 17.6
Recommended start
Zay Flowers
BAL vs. DAL- Floor
- 11.6
- Projection
- 15.9
- Ceiling
- 17.4
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
Adjacent redraft receivers after Smith's Week 2 target spike changed the weekly workload comparison.
DeVonta Smith: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup helps. Zay Flowers: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup helps.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 3 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.