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Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 10, 2026, 1:57 PM EDT

Brock Purdy or Jared Goff: who should I start?

Start Brock Purdy over Jared Goff in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 22.1 to 20.4.

The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.

Start lean
Photograph of Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy

SF vs. SEA
Floor16.7
Median22.1
Ceiling28.4

Recent PPG: 25.1

Recent volume: 34.5

Snap share: 100%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Photograph of Jared Goff

Jared Goff

DET vs. ARI
Floor16.2
Median20.4
Ceiling22.0

Recent PPG: 21.5

Recent volume: 44.0

Snap share: 100%

Availability: No current-week designation

Open player file →
Scoring changes the call

Week 5 projection by format.

4 points per passing TD
Standard

Start Brock Purdy

1.7-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Brock Purdy

SF vs. SEA
Floor
16.7
Projection
22.1
Ceiling
28.4
Other option

Jared Goff

DET vs. ARI
Floor
16.2
Projection
20.4
Ceiling
22.0
Half PPR

Start Brock Purdy

1.7-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Brock Purdy

SF vs. SEA
Floor
16.7
Projection
22.1
Ceiling
28.4
Other option

Jared Goff

DET vs. ARI
Floor
16.2
Projection
20.4
Ceiling
22.0
PPR

Start Brock Purdy

1.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start

Brock Purdy

SF vs. SEA
Floor
16.7
Projection
22.1
Ceiling
28.4
Other option

Jared Goff

DET vs. ARI
Floor
16.2
Projection
20.3
Ceiling
21.9

Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.

Why the model leans this way

Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.

A custom QB decision using recorded scoring, recent opportunity, opponent, and current-week availability.

Brock Purdy: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is tougher. Jared Goff: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is neutral.

Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.

Week 4 final result

Jared Goff scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.

Brock Purdy: 19.6 Half PPR · Jared Goff: 20.5 Half PPR.

More Week 5 decisions

Keep working through the close calls.

QB · 6.4-point leanBrock Purdy over Drake Maye22.1–15.7 Half PPR →QB · 6.9-point leanJared Goff over Justin Herbert20.4–13.5 Half PPR →
Recent usageCheck snaps and opportunities →AvailabilityOpen the injury report →Rest of seasonCompare redraft value →