Away
23Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record
- 3-5
- FTT rating
- +5.3
- Listed QB
- Mayfield
NFL Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET
Buccaneers vs. Bears prediction.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the FTT straight-up pick at 52% model probability. The projected score is TB 23, CHI 22.
Market snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
22Chicago Bears
- Record
- 5-2
- FTT rating
- +3.3
- Listed QB
- Williams
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | CHI 68% market | CHI 48% model | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +195 | 19.2 points |
| Spread | CHI -5.5 | CHI +0.6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 | 6.1 points |
| Total | O/U 47.5 | 45.0 | Under 47.5 | 2.5 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered Week 9 at 3-5 with a +3.4 point differential per game. Chicago Bears entered at 5-2 and +5.3 per game.
Chicago Bears receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 1 day.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Buccaneers vs. Bears?
The FTT model picks Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Its projected score is TB 23, CHI 22.
What is the Buccaneers vs. Bears spread pick?
The model leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5, with a 6.1-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Buccaneers vs. Bears over/under pick?
The model leans under 47.5, with a 2.5-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.