Away
17New York Jets
- Record
- 2-6
- FTT rating
- -6.2
- Listed QB
- Smith
NFL Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
Jets vs. Chiefs prediction.
Kansas City Chiefs is the FTT straight-up pick at 76% model probability. The projected score is NYJ 17, KC 27.
Market snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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27Kansas City Chiefs
- Record
- 5-2
- FTT rating
- +1.7
- Listed QB
- Mahomes
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | KC 81% market | KC 76% model | Kansas City Chiefs -520 | 5.0 points |
| Spread | KC -9.5 | KC -9.4 | Pass | 0.1 points |
| Total | O/U 46.5 | 43.7 | Under 46.5 | 2.8 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
New York Jets entered Week 9 at 2-6 with a -2.3 point differential per game. Kansas City Chiefs entered at 5-2 and +5.1 per game.
Kansas City Chiefs receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Jets vs. Chiefs?
The FTT model picks Kansas City Chiefs. Its projected score is NYJ 17, KC 27.
What is the Jets vs. Chiefs spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at +9.5.
What is the Jets vs. Chiefs over/under pick?
The model leans under 46.5, with a 2.8-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.