Away
27Los Angeles Rams
- Record
- 4-4
- FTT rating
- +4.2
- Listed QB
- Stafford
NFL Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
Rams vs. Commanders prediction.
Los Angeles Rams is the FTT straight-up pick at 70% model probability. The projected score is LAR 27, WAS 20.
Market snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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20Washington Commanders
- Record
- 2-4-1
- FTT rating
- -4.5
- Listed QB
- Daniels
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | WAS 33% market | WAS 30% model | Los Angeles Rams -230 | 3.5 points |
| Spread | WAS +5.5 | WAS +7.2 | Los Angeles Rams -5.5 | 1.7 points |
| Total | O/U 47.5 | 47.6 | Pass | 0.1 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Los Angeles Rams entered Week 9 at 4-4 with a +3.3 point differential per game. Washington Commanders entered at 2-4-1 and -3.3 per game.
Washington Commanders receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Rams vs. Commanders?
The FTT model picks Los Angeles Rams. Its projected score is LAR 27, WAS 20.
What is the Rams vs. Commanders spread pick?
The model leans Los Angeles Rams -5.5, with a 1.7-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Rams vs. Commanders over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 47.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.