Away
25Houston Texans
- Record
- 2-5
- FTT rating
- +1.8
- Listed QB
- Stroud
NFL Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET
Texans vs. Chargers prediction.
Houston Texans is the FTT straight-up pick at 70% model probability. The projected score is HOU 25, LAC 18.
Market snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
18Los Angeles Chargers
- Record
- 0-7
- FTT rating
- -6.1
- Listed QB
- Herbert
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | LAC 34% market | LAC 30% model | Houston Texans -218 | 4.2 points |
| Spread | LAC +4.5 | LAC +7 | Houston Texans -4.5 | 2.5 points |
| Total | O/U 41.5 | 42.9 | Over 41.5 | 1.4 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Houston Texans entered Week 9 at 2-5 with a -0.7 point differential per game. Los Angeles Chargers entered at 0-7 and -10.9 per game.
Los Angeles Chargers receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 7 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Texans vs. Chargers?
The FTT model picks Houston Texans. Its projected score is HOU 25, LAC 18.
What is the Texans vs. Chargers spread pick?
The model leans Houston Texans -4.5, with a 2.5-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Texans vs. Chargers over/under pick?
The model leans over 41.5, with a 1.4-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.