Away
20Green Bay Packers
- Record
- 5-3
- FTT rating
- +3.8
- Listed QB
- Love
NFL Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET
Packers vs. Patriots prediction.
New England Patriots is the FTT straight-up pick at 60% model probability. The projected score is GB 20, NE 24.
Market snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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24New England Patriots
- Record
- 5-3
- FTT rating
- +6.3
- Listed QB
- Maye
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | NE 57% market | NE 60% model | New England Patriots -148 | 3.0 points |
| Spread | NE -3 | NE -3.5 | Pass | 0.5 points |
| Total | O/U 47.5 | 43.5 | Under 47.5 | 4.0 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Green Bay Packers entered Week 9 at 5-3 with a +0.9 point differential per game. New England Patriots entered at 5-3 and +2.8 per game.
New England Patriots receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is away by 3 days.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Packers vs. Patriots?
The FTT model picks New England Patriots. Its projected score is GB 20, NE 24.
What is the Packers vs. Patriots spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at -3.
What is the Packers vs. Patriots over/under pick?
The model leans under 47.5, with a 4.0-point difference.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.