Away
28Detroit Lions
- Record
- 5-2
- FTT rating
- +4.8
- Listed QB
- Goff
NFL Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
Lions vs. Dolphins prediction.
Detroit Lions is the FTT straight-up pick at 71% model probability. The projected score is DET 28, MIA 21.
Market snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
21Miami Dolphins
- Record
- 1-6
- FTT rating
- -4.3
- Listed QB
- Willis
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | MIA 24% market | MIA 29% model | Detroit Lions -375 | 4.4 points |
| Spread | MIA +7 | MIA +7.6 | Pass | 0.6 points |
| Total | O/U 49.5 | 48.7 | Pass | 0.8 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Detroit Lions entered Week 9 at 5-2 with a +3.3 point differential per game. Miami Dolphins entered at 1-6 and -9.1 per game.
Miami Dolphins receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Lions vs. Dolphins?
The FTT model picks Detroit Lions. Its projected score is DET 28, MIA 21.
What is the Lions vs. Dolphins spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at -7.
What is the Lions vs. Dolphins over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 49.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.