Away
27Dallas Cowboys
- Record
- 3-5
- FTT rating
- -2.0
- Listed QB
- Prescott
NFL Week 9 · Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
Cowboys vs. Colts prediction.
Dallas Cowboys is the FTT straight-up pick at 53% model probability. The projected score is DAL 27, IND 26.
Market snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
Home
26Indianapolis Colts
- Record
- 2-6
- FTT rating
- -4.5
- Listed QB
- Jones
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | IND 31% market | IND 47% model | Dallas Cowboys -260 | 16.4 points |
| Spread | IND +5.5 | IND +1 | Indianapolis Colts +5.5 | 4.5 points |
| Total | O/U 51.5 | 52.0 | Pass | 0.5 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Dallas Cowboys entered Week 9 at 3-5 with a +0.8 point differential per game. Indianapolis Colts entered at 2-6 and -7.6 per game.
Indianapolis Colts receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Cowboys vs. Colts?
The FTT model picks Dallas Cowboys. Its projected score is DAL 27, IND 26.
What is the Cowboys vs. Colts spread pick?
The model leans Indianapolis Colts +5.5, with a 4.5-point difference from the listed spread.
What is the Cowboys vs. Colts over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 51.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.