Away
24Buffalo Bills
- Record
- 6-1
- FTT rating
- +7.3
- Listed QB
- Allen
NFL Week 9 · Monday, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET
Bills vs. Vikings prediction.
Buffalo Bills is the FTT straight-up pick at 56% model probability. The projected score is BUF 24, MIN 22.
Market snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Pregame numbers freeze at kickoff and do not move after the result.
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22Minnesota Vikings
- Record
- 6-1
- FTT rating
- +4.0
- Listed QB
- Murray
Model vs. market
The pick, spread and total in one view.
| Market | Listed number | FTT number | FTT lean | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | MIN 42% market | MIN 44% model | Buffalo Bills -155 | 2.7 points |
| Spread | MIN +2.5 | MIN +1.9 | Pass | 0.6 points |
| Total | O/U 46.5 | 45.8 | Pass | 0.7 points |
Why the model landed here
Strength, scoring, site and rest.
Buffalo Bills entered Week 9 at 6-1 with a +7.4 point differential per game. Minnesota Vikings entered at 6-1 and +6.7 per game.
Minnesota Vikings receives the model's 1.5-point home-field adjustment. The rest difference is even.
The scoring projection regresses both teams' current points scored and allowed toward their prior-season baselines. The opponent-adjusted rating caps individual game margins at 28 points so one blowout cannot dominate the board.
On the 2025 Weeks 5-18 walk-forward, these rules finished 125–83 straight up, 81–82 ATS and 81–80 on totals. The ATS and totals results were effectively coin flips.
Who will win Bills vs. Vikings?
The FTT model picks Buffalo Bills. Its projected score is BUF 24, MIN 22.
What is the Bills vs. Vikings spread pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes at +2.5.
What is the Bills vs. Vikings over/under pick?
The model difference is under one point, so FTT passes on the 46.5 total.
When were these odds captured?
The market snapshot was captured Nov 2, 2026, 8:34 AM EST. Odds can move, and FTT does not present the snapshot as a live sportsbook quote.