Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. TBDFloor13.0
Median20.4
Ceiling26.2
Recent PPG: 20.9
Recent volume: 28.5
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 10, 2026, 1:57 PM EDT
Patrick Mahomes or Tyler Shough: who should I start?
Start Patrick Mahomes over Tyler Shough in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 20.4 to 17.6.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
KC vs. TBDOpen player file →
Tyler Shough
NO vs. MINFloor11.9
Median17.6
Ceiling20.8
Recent PPG: 21.3
Recent volume: 46.5
Snap share: 100%
Availability: Full Participation in Practice
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 5 projection by format.
Standard
Start Patrick Mahomes
2.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 20.4
- Ceiling
- 26.2
Other option
Tyler Shough
NO vs. MIN- Floor
- 11.9
- Projection
- 17.6
- Ceiling
- 20.8
Half PPR
Start Patrick Mahomes
2.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 20.4
- Ceiling
- 26.2
Other option
Tyler Shough
NO vs. MIN- Floor
- 11.9
- Projection
- 17.6
- Ceiling
- 20.8
PPR
Start Patrick Mahomes
2.8-point gapHigh confidence
Recommended start
Patrick Mahomes
KC vs. TBD- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 20.4
- Ceiling
- 26.2
Other option
Tyler Shough
NO vs. MIN- Floor
- 11.9
- Projection
- 17.6
- Ceiling
- 20.8
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
A custom QB decision using recorded scoring, recent opportunity, opponent, and current-week availability.
Patrick Mahomes: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup is neutral. Tyler Shough: recent role is near baseline, and the matchup is tougher.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 4 final result
Patrick Mahomes scored more. The pregame lean was right.
Patrick Mahomes: 17.0 Half PPR · Tyler Shough: 15.9 Half PPR.
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