Kyler Murray
MIN vs. TBFloor13.0
Median14.4
Ceiling18.7
Recent PPG: -0.4
Recent volume: 21.0
Snap share: 56%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 3 lineup decision · updated Sep 22, 2026, 8:07 PM EDT
Kyler Murray or Sam Darnold: who should I start?
Start Kyler Murray over Sam Darnold in Week 3. The Half PPR projection is 14.4 to 11.5.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
MIN vs. TBOpen player file →
Sam Darnold
SEA vs. WASFloor5.8
Median11.5
Ceiling19.6
Recent PPG: 0.5
Recent volume: 17.0
Snap share: 55%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 3 projection by format.
Standard
Start Kyler Murray
2.9-point gapMedium confidence
Recommended start
Kyler Murray
MIN vs. TB- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 18.7
Other option
Sam Darnold
SEA vs. WAS- Floor
- 5.8
- Projection
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 19.6
Half PPR
Start Kyler Murray
2.9-point gapMedium confidence
Recommended start
Kyler Murray
MIN vs. TB- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 18.7
Other option
Sam Darnold
SEA vs. WAS- Floor
- 5.8
- Projection
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 19.6
PPR
Start Kyler Murray
2.9-point gapMedium confidence
Recommended start
Kyler Murray
MIN vs. TB- Floor
- 13.0
- Projection
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 18.7
Other option
Sam Darnold
SEA vs. WAS- Floor
- 5.8
- Projection
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 19.6
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
A close lower-QB1 decision shaped by current availability, rushing volume, and opponent context.
Kyler Murray: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup helps. Sam Darnold: recent role lowers the estimate, and the matchup helps.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 3 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.