Kyler Murray
MIN vs. NOFloor11.3
Median12.4
Ceiling18.1
Recent PPG: 7.2
Recent volume: 37.0
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Week 5 lineup decision · updated Oct 11, 2026, 7:29 AM EDT
Kyler Murray or Sam Darnold: who should I start?
Start Sam Darnold over Kyler Murray in Week 5. The Half PPR projection is 14.5 to 12.4.
The lean blends recorded scoring, recent workload, opponent positional defense and only same-week listed availability. Recheck the official inactive list before kickoff.
MIN vs. NOOpen player file →
Sam Darnold
SEA vs. SFFloor6.1
Median14.5
Ceiling21.6
Recent PPG: 13.8
Recent volume: 35.5
Snap share: 100%
Availability: No current-week designation
Scoring changes the call
4 points per passing TDWeek 5 projection by format.
Standard
Start Sam Darnold
2.1-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Kyler Murray
MIN vs. NO- Floor
- 11.3
- Projection
- 12.4
- Ceiling
- 18.1
Recommended start
Sam Darnold
SEA vs. SF- Floor
- 6.1
- Projection
- 14.5
- Ceiling
- 21.6
Half PPR
Start Sam Darnold
2.1-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Kyler Murray
MIN vs. NO- Floor
- 11.3
- Projection
- 12.4
- Ceiling
- 18.1
Recommended start
Sam Darnold
SEA vs. SF- Floor
- 6.1
- Projection
- 14.5
- Ceiling
- 21.6
PPR
Start Sam Darnold
2.1-point gapHigh confidence
Other option
Kyler Murray
MIN vs. NO- Floor
- 11.3
- Projection
- 12.4
- Ceiling
- 18.1
Recommended start
Sam Darnold
SEA vs. SF- Floor
- 6.1
- Projection
- 14.5
- Ceiling
- 21.6
Floor and ceiling show the lower and upper ends of the player's recent scoring range. The projection is the middle estimate after current role, matchup, and same-week availability are applied.
Why the model leans this way
Role first. Matchup second. Availability always visible.
A close lower-QB1 decision shaped by current availability, rushing volume, and opponent context.
Kyler Murray: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup is tougher. Sam Darnold: recent role raises the estimate, and the matchup is neutral.
Availability adjustments apply only when the source contains a Week 5 report. Older designations remain visible in the injury archive but do not reduce this projection.
Week 4 final result
Sam Darnold scored more. The pregame lean was wrong.
Kyler Murray: 11.5 Half PPR · Sam Darnold: 13.3 Half PPR.